GUESTBLOG
August 28, 2008
Three base beaters
By Bill Kraus
Most post-election assessments deal with how and why the loser lost.
The sad fact is that focus is not entirely misplaced.
But on rare occasions there are races that are so clearly won, usually against overwhelming odds, that they are remembered for the winners’ heroics.
The three elections in that category that I remember most vividly had one striking thing in common.
The unexpected winners did not play to the so called indispensable base usually because there was no base for them to play to.
All three created new majorities.
Start with Harry Truman in 1948. He was running against Thomas Dewey, who presumably had the Republican base in his pocket. Worse yet, Truman had two intra-party opponents. Strom Thurmond was running as a Dixiecrat with the full support of the, at that time, solidly Democratic south. This base was composed of Republicans who voted Democratic to keep control of the Congressional committees their seniority gave them.
And then there was Henry Wallace, who had been Roosevelt’s vice president from 1940 to 1944 and who Roosevelt dumped in 1944 for many reasons including the fact that he was too much of a lefty for Roosevelt. Henry’s third-party candidacy was pitched to the left-wing Democratic base.
The baseless Truman won.
George McGovern ran as a baseless nominee for the top of the Democratic ticket in 1972. Since the entire Democratic base had no use for Senator McGovern, he had no chance of getting the convention’s nomination. But he did. He appealed to what I have labeled the “Hunter Thompson constituency.” Independent, anti-establishment types who are looking for something new and interesting. They got him the nomination, which he promptly screwed up by visiting the establishment his constituents had rejected by visiting Democratic Mayor Dick Daley in Chicago and ex-President Lyndon Johnson in Austin.
Then there was the unstoppable Lee Dreyfus, who ran against the base annointed and well-funded Bob Kasten in a primary he couldn’t win. Bad enough to try to win a general election when a lot of independents vote. Impossible in a primary where the regulars, the sure-Republican base, votes.
The Kasten campaign ran its last poll the weekend before the Tuesday primary. It predicted a 60-40 win for them. Two days later he lost by that exact percentage.
What Dreyfus had done was attract a huge vote from the same kind of people who voted for Truman and McGovern.
In all three cases the so-called essential base got its clock cleaned.
This same scenario is in play in 2008. But the presidential candidates’ advisers don’t remember or believe it.
Where did these two unlikely candidates come from for Heaven’s sake. Not from the Democratic or Republican taxi squads.
They came from outer-political space, and the people who brought them will take them the next step, but only if they don’t make the mistake McGovern made and Truman and Dreyfus avoided.
GARVEYBLOG
August 28, 2008
What a night!
By Ed Garvey
"He will be our president." A motion, moved by Senator Hillary Clinton, passed at 5:47 p.m. CDT. She made it unanimous: "I move that Senator Obama be selected by acclamation." Forty-five years after Dr. King's "I Have a Dream" speech, 44 years after Andrew Goodman, Michael Schwerner, and James Chaney were killed in Mississippi.
Hillary Clinton made all of us proud and Bill Clinton hit it out of the park as well. It has been a long, difficult and dangerous trip from Greensboro to Denver. What a treat.
The cable guys, for the most part were upset that the Convention lacked the killer instinct. Not enough "red meat" they said. "No one took on McCain." Well, perhaps change begins at home. It begins with Teddy Kennedy's incredible speech despite pain. Maybe, just maybe, the current belief that only negative campaigns win is about to end.
Celebrate the moment tonight. But think about Medgar Evers, Bobby, MLK Jr., the Greensboro four, John Lewis, Paul Potter, Bob Moses, Diane Nash and thousands who risked their lives so that Barack Obama could become the nominee of the Democratic Party. Somewhere Rosa Parks and Fannie Lou Hamer are smiling. This is, to quote a ten-year-old at Michelle Obama's speech, "Awesome."
John Conyers: Another hero, John Conyers, Chair of Judiciary was interviewed in Denver.
BOB FEST--Eight days to go. We are ready. See you in Baraboo.
ARTICLE
August 28, 2008
Fest of plenty
By Ed Garvey
Doris "Granny D" Haddock will join Phil Donahue, Bill McKibben, Scott Ritter and thousands of others at Fighting Bob Fest on September 6.
GARVEYBLOG
August 27, 2008
Not at the Ritz? OMG!
By Ed Garvey
If one had not followed the negative presidential primary campaign of Hillary Clinton, designed by Mark Penn and implemented by DLC founder, Bill, her speech last night was boffo! In the same league with Barack's speech four years ago. Unfortunately we did follow her path to Denver and she could say nothing to delete her harmful charges made during the primary. Start with the Commander-in-Chief charge that John McCain hopes to ride into the White House. She didn't say a word last night to assuage the damning statement. Oh, well.
The problem is that the Clintons are mad as hell and they are not going to take it anymore. This is their Party and it is her turn. Bill's face reads, "We didn't lose, we ran out of time, but we will win again." (The NYT said it a little differently: "With her husband looking on tightly." What the heck does that mean?)
And now it is Bill's night to preen. Can we survive? I have doubts. Thursday seems like a long way off. (Message to Barack. It is your Party. Nothing you can say will be enough for the Clintons so move on. Russia, Georgia, climate change, housing and banking crises, over-flowing prisons failing schools...blow the roof off.)
But the worst comes in the paper-of-record this morning. Remember when Obama won the nomination marathon? The Clinton folks said she would endorse the winner if Barack would help retire her enormous debt, and count Florida, and Michigan, ya-da-ya-da-ya-da. Obama apparently agreed to help and to date he has raised half a million for her. "Chump change" you say? I guess so. But here is the incredible story. The Hillary funders in Denver are as angry as Bill and with good reason. Read this: "Perceived snubs leading up to the convention have not helped. Only a handful of Clinton donors got rooms at the coveted Ritz-Carlton where the biggest Obama fund-raisers are staying." OMG! One can hear it now: "Oh my dear, you are not at the Ritz? Staying at the YWCA are you? Camping out on the lawn?"
I was at Fort Gordon, Georgia, in 1960 and listened late into the night to speeches by those nominating Adlai Stevenson, LBJ and JFK. When Kennedy won the nomination, Lyndon Johnson and Adlai quickly got on the Kennedy Express. It was country over personal advantage. If someone had complained they had been assigned to a lowly three star hotel, they would have been laughed out of the convention. The Ritz-Carlton? My Party? Say it ain't so.
Greg Palast and RFK, Jr. are searching for over three million "lost" votes from the 2004 presidential election. Palast, in an interview for FB.Com, says the 2008 election might be stolen already.
GARVEYBLOG
August 26, 2008
Who followed Lincoln?
By Ed Garvey
I once had to follow Jesse Jackson to the microphone to give a speech and I asked myself, Who followed Lincoln at Gettysburg, Cuomo in San Francisco, King in Washington? Michelle Obama must have asked that question last night as tears and cheers followed "uncle Teddy's" every word. He was magnificent. Courageous, dynamic and determined to help Barack win the presidency. It was the passing of the torch 40 years after Bobby's death. She had her challenge and she met it head on.
For those of us old enough to have cheered JFK, asked if Teddy was ready for the Senate, and joined the crusade in 1968, last night was a dream come true.
And while we may never know who followed Lincoln, we will always remember that Michelle Obama and two kids followed Teddy. When Michelle spoke in Madison, a ten-year-old girl listened with rapt attention. When Michelle finished the child called her mother on a cell phone and uttered one word: "Awesome!" She spoke for all of us that day and when Michelle finished last night the word came back to me. Awesome. Simply awesome. Another word that floats to the top is "authenticity." She has it.
The only negative comments last night continued to flow from a few Clinton supporters who said, "Okay, I will come to your party but I will not have a good time no matter what happens." When Hillary Clinton speaks, I'll be more interested in the reaction of the ten-year-old who saw Michelle than in the jaded views of the cable folks. If she is authentic in her support she will probably earn an "awesome." If not, another torch will have been passed.
Race: Bill Dixon and I joined Bishop Desmond Tutu outside the South African embassy in a march for an end to Apartheid. It was a thrill. Tutu would gently prod this country to deal with race starting with slavery. We didn't follow his advice. Wish we had but we have a chance now. We must call on the people of this country to join MLK, Jr., Bobby Kennedy, Fannie Lou Hamer, Rosa Parks and deal with the fact that Barack is black. Talk about it, write about it, refuse to accept the notion that white Americans in the 21st Century won't vote for a black American.
Bob Herbert, writing in the NYT today, acknowledged that race is a major factor. He quoted a union leader who said, "We've been talking with staff...we're all struggling to some extent with the problem of white workers who will not vote for Obama because of his color. It is a very powerful thing to get over."
Say what you will but that same ten-year-old is watching our every move. If white people tell her that Barack is better in every way but one, it may doom her generation. We are on trial. When she heard Michelle Obama she did not think of race. She made the old guy next to her feel a surge of hope.
Make us proud, Hillary.
FightingFob.com at the convention: We have lots of friends at the Convention and our video team is capturing lots of things you won't see on TV. Should be fun.
If you haven't registered for Fighting Bob Fest yet, please do. Our costs are up so any help you can give will ensure we have plenty to pay the bills. September 6 is almost here.
ARTICLE
August 26, 2008
Hoping against Hope
By Tom Hermann
One Democratic voter asks the Clintons to close the door on their way out.
GUESTBLOG
August 25, 2008
Corporate conventional wisdom
By Terry Warren
Am I the only one who feels the need to vent about the amazing and disgusting numbers related to some large corporations' “sponsorship” the two political conventions? I only heard this mentioned once on National Public Radio, and haven’t seen, heard or read anything in the corporate news about it, so I am led to believe that everyone else takes it for granted that it is okay for corporations like Qwest and Xcel Energy "donate" millions of dollars to fund the extravaganzas that are our national political conventions.
I believe I heard that Qwest is providing $5 million to each of the conventions. Xcel is supporting at least one convention with a donation of $1 million.
Meanwhile we listen to corporations bemoan the state of the economy as they cut jobs, negotiate to provide fewer benefits and lower pay to employees, and outsource to foreign countries in the name of “remaining competitive.” If U.S. businesses can’t afford to pay decent wages, where is this convention money coming from?
I work with Habitat for Humanity to provide the opportunity for homeownership to low-income families living in poverty housing. Each year I submit grant proposals for a few thousand dollars each, and when the grants are awarded we are grateful to receive the help to fund home construction. I just can’t help but think how many men, women and children we could help with the millions of dollars these companies are spending on the conventions.
Am I the only one who thinks this way?
(Terry Warren lives in Rice Lake and she is the executive director of Barron County Habitat for Humanity.)
GARVEYBLOG
August 25, 2008
Tim Pawlenty
By Ed Garvey
The governor of Minnesota is a nice guy who needs some time double-A ball before he goes to the Major Leagues. Tim Pawlenty made fun of Obama's choice of the older Joe Biden: "You should not need a trainer, a mentor or a supervisor in the White House." (Clever line, but lunch at the Main Depot if he came up with it.) The state of Hubert Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Don and Arvonne Fraser, can do better.
Should McCain choose Pawlenty, he will stop singing "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bom Iran" and turn to Gershwin and Sinatra: "I got Pawlenty of nothin, and nothin's Pawlenty for me."
The very expensive Democratic extravaganza starts tonight, so get ready for the focus to be on a gaff. By whom? Won't matter. The political commentators seem scared to death that Obama will open a big lead. Their mission is to stop that from happening. If they can pick on Michelle's outfit, Biden's grimace, Howard Dean's yawn--they will.
Sunday, the Credentials Committee quietly restored full delegate status to Michigan and Florida. Really.
Prediction: Hillary will stop the roll call and ask for unanimous support for Barack.
We now have only 11 days until Fighting Bob Fest--so register today. And keep checking in at FightingBobFest.org.
GARVEYBLOG
August 24, 2008
Biden
By Ed Garvey
It was in the body language. Joe Biden and Barack Obama really like each other. You could almost feel the warmth, and that is why this choice was so good. I don't think Al Gore liked Lieberman and Lieberman, as best I can tell, only likes himself. (Okay, he also likes the Reverend John Hagee.)
John Edwards and John Kerry respected each other, but no warmth. Need proof? Edwards was marginalized in the campaign. More proof? The early morning concession by the always polite John Kerry was over the objections of trial lawyer Edwards. You know all about LBJ and JFK. Johnson was never at peace in Camelot and he could not stand RFK. McGovern and Tom Eagleton--disaster and, Shriver, the replacement, was no help in building a fire. Carter and Mondale always seemed distant. And can you forget the Mondale-Ferraro drama as the vetter-in-chief, Jim Johnson, forgot to ask Geraldine about taxes and her husband's occupation.
Obama-Clinton would have been the worst of all worlds in terms of warmth. Identical on issues but that's it.
These two men laughed at each other's jokes, smiled when Barack introduced Biden as "the next president," where others would have cringed. This will be a team. Michelle, Joe, Barack and Jill. More than Clinton-Gore. A team that seems comfortable with one another and they all seem to like the team. Well done, Barack.
Save Our Prison! A decade ago, Professor Frank Remington, expert on crime and punishment, tried to convince Republican Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Attorney General Jim Doyle to stop building prisons. "Wisconsin must choose. More prisons or a great University," Remington said.
Thompson feared that he would be out-flanked on the right by Doyle on the law-and-order front and Doyle was determined to show how tough Democrats are on crime. Result? Lots of prisons, (some) Truth in Sentencing, and tough times at UW. Prison building is our growth industry if only the potential residents of our prisons cooperate. If crime dips, it is an economic fiasco. The NYT carried the story of a proposed prison closing in Pontiac, Illinois, but it could just as well be Boscobel, Waupon or Racine. T-shirts and placards read, "SAVE OUR PRISON." Closing the prison will save the state nearly $9 million over two years, but it will kill the town's second largest employer, with 570 jobs lost.
Now you understand Remington's warning. The goal seems to be to keep as many people as possible in prison as part of an employment program: Create more crimes, mete out longer sentences, eliminate parole. (Parole is perilous. If you don't believe me ask Michael Dukakis.)
Leadership needed. Sam Gompers said it more than a hundred years ago, "More schools, fewer prisons." And Jesse Jackson's quote, "First class prisons, second class schools. We can do better." Yes we can!
ARTICLE
August 24, 2008
Let us now praise Epic and Wiley
By Dr. Linda Farley and Dr. Eugene Farley
John Wiley and Epic Systems are standing up to WMC and inviting others to follow their lead.
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